In a town once sustained by a copper mine, life flourished as long as the mine remained productive. The community boasted a tavern, a real estate agent, a doctor, and a church, all of which were indirectly supported by the mine's prosperity. However, the town’s economic foundation collapsed when the mine's resources were depleted. Miners lost their jobs, and local businesses suffered due to reduced spending. The town attempted to maintain its economy by circulating the remaining funds, but economic activity dwindled with each transaction, compounded by the increasing need to import essential goods. Ultimately, the town could no longer sustain itself and was abandoned, fading into a ghost town.
The first category encompasses various service industry roles, such as social media managers, bank clerks, politicians, retail employees, clergy, and attorneys. A purely service-based economy is unsustainable. Consider a self-contained town populated exclusively by individuals in these professions. Given that every transaction incurs costs, this community would inevitably exhaust its resources.
The second category includes those who directly generate wealth, such as farmers, miners, and manufacturers. These individuals produce tangible value, whether through mined ore, crude oil, or harvested crops. This segment of the economy is capable of self-sustenance.
The third category seeks to enhance the productivity of the second group through technological and efficiency innovations. This includes scientists who develop high-yield crops and engineers who create tools, such as tractor-powered plows, to replace traditional methods. While this group alone cannot sustain an economy, their integration with the productive sector substantially increases wealth generation per capita.
Historically, the majority of people fell into the second category, directly contributing to the economy’s tangible assets. However, the third category exhibits exponential growth potential. Initially, their impact may seem limited, but due to their ability to innovate and build upon past advancements in ways that the other groups cannot, they ultimately become crucial. It’s conceivable to envision a future where a handful of farmers, utilizing automation and sensor technology, manage vast agricultural areas. Or, consider a future without human farmers, where machines tend the fields and other machines repair them ( though I am not one of those imagining this scenario, some who have never farmed may indeed picture it, so I include it as an example ). Nevertheless, these machines would still belong to the second group, which remains fundamental to any economy.
In my analysis of the top 30 occupations in the U.S. (representing two-thirds of the workforce, according to a broad categorization from bls.gov), I found it necessary to refine the first group for greater precision. Notably, the four most common jobs involve the transportation of goods—activities that align with the characteristics of the first category.
Breaking down the first category yields:
- F-M: Those responsible for transporting and handling materials and services, including roles like waiters, retail employees, clerks, drivers, and bankers.
- F-E: Individuals dedicated to combating disorder and maintaining order, such as housekeepers, medical professionals, and nurses.
- F-B: The orchestrators of operations, including various leadership and directive roles like managers, executives, specialists in multiple fields, financial experts, sales representatives, and administrative personnel.
Teachers present a unique classification challenge. If education is viewed as a means of enhancing productivity, akin to manufacturing tractors, teachers fall into the second group, as they help create more capable individuals. Conversely, if education is seen primarily as supervision or care, similar to services in the first group, they would belong there. Adopting an optimistic perspective on education’s impact, teachers have been classified within the second group.
The broad “Computer Occupations” category does not exclusively align with the third group, which focuses on roles that drive innovation and efficiency. Nonetheless, for the purposes of this analysis, all computer-related occupations have been assigned to the third group.
Data from other countries in Europe and Asia reveal a similar trend: jobs in the first category are growing at the expense of those in the second. A sustainable economy cannot exist where more people are engaged in moving goods than in producing them.